- Poster presentation
- Open Access
External validation of six mortality prediction systems for intensive care unit patients
© BioMed Central Ltd. 2010
- Published: 1 March 2010
- Receiver Operating Characteristic
- Intensive Care Unit Patient
- Prediction System
- Prognostic Model
- Mortality Prediction
This study investigates the prognostic quality of six prediction models (APACHE II score, SAPS II, SAPS II (Expanded), SAPS 3, MPM and MPM II0) for assessment in an adult surgical ICU in the Netherlands.
Of all single admissions to the surgical ICU of the St Elisabeth Hospital between 1995 and 2000, data to calculate the results of six prediction models were prospectively documented. To evaluate discrimination and calibration, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the characteristic (AUC) curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were performed.
The SAPS 3 prediction mortality model is the best validated model for a Dutch surgical ICU population of six models tested. The other general prognostic models for ICU patients underestimate the risk of dying.