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Combining various severity of illness scoring systems to improve outcome prediction: pilot experience in the critically ill obstetric population
Critical Care volume 11, Article number: P458 (2007)
No perfect severity score exists to predict ICU mortality, thus the search for new systems is still a preoccupation.
Use of many severity of illness scores simultaneously improves mortality prediction.
Patients and methods
An open prospective observational study as part of the APRiMo project . The study period was January 1996–September 2004. Inclusion criteria were critically ill obstetric patients and ICU length of stay >24 hours. Exclusion criteria were those of the used scores. The main outcome of interest was the survival status at ICU discharge. The database was divided into two samples: development and validation datasets. Development database patients were chosen randomly (n = 414) and the remaining patients composed the validation dataset (n = 229). A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to predict mortality associating the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score , Simplified Acute Physiology Score II , Admission Mortality Prediction Model (MPM-H0) and Day 1 Mortality Prediction Model (MPM-H24) . Discrimination and calibration were assessed by goodness-of-fit C-hat statistics and area under the ROC curve. The developed model was then tested in the validation dataset. Good discrimination was retained if C-hat statistics P > 0.1 and good calibration if area under the ROC curve > 0.8.
Six hundred and forty-three patients enrolled. The overall mortality rate was 11.51%. The new model predicted accurately 99% of survivors and more than 60% of nonsurvivors.
The 'multiscore' model seems to refine prognosis. This is partly due to mixing of new evaluated parameters. Testing the latest developed generations of scores and also organ dysfunction systems could be interesting.
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Haddad, Z., Kaddour, C., Skandrani, L. et al. Combining various severity of illness scoring systems to improve outcome prediction: pilot experience in the critically ill obstetric population. Crit Care 11, P458 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1186/cc5618
- Validation Dataset
- Chronic Health Evaluation
- Multivariable Logistic Regression Model
- Acute Physiology Score
- Obstetric Patient