Fig. 3

For scenarios with a baseline risk of 50%, distributions across 2000 trials of estimated APACHE-adjusted odds ratios according to the true absolute risk reductions and colored according to whether the Bayesian analysis returns a probability of benefit larger or smaller than 95%. In each panel, each method of analysis (on the x-axis) has the same 2000 trials as input, but more of them lead to a positive finding (colored blue) when more weight is place on the historical evidence. For the planned fixed weighting of 75%, an observed adjusted OR of approximately 0.66 or lower (the threshold separating blue and gold dots) leads to a positive trial conclusion. The blue labels indicate the percentages of simulated trials where we conclude benefit (i.e., the power) for the corresponding absolute risk reduction and use of historical data