Table 2 Overall model fit, discrimination, calibration indices, and predicted risk reclassification when renal dysfunction (i.e., eGFR_MDRD4 < 60 ml/min) is added or not to the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model for the prediction of the 30-day all-cause death after acute pulmonary embolism in the study population and in the RIETE cohort for external validation

Models (OR, 95%CI)

 ESC model

2.2 (1.6–2.7)

1.8 (1.4–2.4)

1.9 (1.7–2.1)

1.9 (1.7–2.2)

 ESC model with eGFR_MDRD4*

‒

2.3 (1.5–3.4)

‒

2.1 (1.7–2.6)

Overall model fit

 Bayes information criteria

812.3

804.4

3458.3

3386.5

 Akaike information criteria

801.2

787.6

3443.2

3363.2

 Nagelkerke’s R²

1.6%

2.3%

0.6%

1.2%

Discrimination

 Harrell’s c index

0.631

0.676^#

0.617

0.667^#

Calibration

 Adjusted χ Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit across deciles of risk

1.15

1.21

18.0

18.2

 P Hosmer–Lemeshow

0.009

0.06

 < 0.001

0.12

Risk reclassification between ESC model and ESC model with eGFR*

 IDI

1.1%(95% CI 0.5–1.7; p < 0.001)

0.5% (95% CI 0.3–0.6; p < 0.01)

 Continuous NRI

46.9%(95% CI 27.6–66.2; p < 0.001)

45.2% (95% CI 35.1–55.3; p < 0.001)

 User category NRI

19.5% (95% CI 6.3–32.6; p = 0.004)

–

 % of 30-day mortality correctly reclassified

18%

–