Fig. 4

The nomogram scoring system for predicting patients’ survival probability based on age, LDH level, DBIL, and NLR. a Nomogram for predicting the probability of 14-day and 28-day survival. The number of points for each factor is in the top row. For each factor, the absence is assigned 0 points. The presence of factors is associated with the number of points. The points for each factor are summed together to generate a total point score. The total points correspond to the respective 14-day and 28-day survival probabilities. The ability of this model to distinguish between low-risk and high-risk patients can be demonstrated by considering two hypothetical individuals who might be encountered in practice: patient A is 60 years old with NLR of 10, DBIL of 4 μmol/L, and LDH of 400 U/L, getting a total score of 144.23; patient B is 40 years old with NLR of 3, DBIL of 10 μmol/L, and LDH 100 U/L, getting a total score of 41.06. Our model predicts that patient A’s 14-day survival probability is 75%, and his 28-day survival probability is 63%. For patient B, his 14-day survival probability and 28-day survival probability are more than 95%. b–g The calibration plot of survival probabilities at 14 days and 28 days. Nomogram-predicted survival probability is plotted on the x-axis, with observed survival probability on the y-axis. Dashed lines along the 45° line through the origin point represent the perfect calibration models in which the predicted probabilities are identical to the actual probabilities. The training cohort calibration plot of survival probabilities at 14 days (b) and 28 days (c). d, e The external validation cohort 1 calibration plot of survival probabilities at 14 days (d) and 28 days (e). f, g The external validation cohort 2 calibration plot of survival probabilities at 14 days (f) and 28 days (g)