Fig. 3

Modeled incidences of organ failure, death, and discharge in three illustrative patients. Patient 1 is a 72-year-old immunocompromised male admitted for a community-acquired pneumonia with mild hypoxemia (60% oxygen mask), a lactate level of 0.5 mg/L and a C-reactive protein level of 153 mg/L upon presentation. He has an absolute risk for discharge alive of 58% and death of 22% at day 14. Patient 2 represents another (but similar) patient with a community-acquired pneumonia in acute respiratory distress (requiring prompt intubation), hypotension (requiring norepinephrine), mottled skin, oliguria, lactate 4.2 mg/L, and a C-reactive protein of 268 mg/L. He has a risk for discharge alive of 36% and death of 40% at day 14. Patient 3 is a 53-year-old previously healthy female patient with a urinary tract infection, lactate of 0.4 mg/L, and a C-reactive protein of 50 mg/L. She has a probability of discharge alive of 79% and a probability of death of 5% at day 14