Fig. 1From: Defining benefit threshold for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in children with sepsis—a binational multicenter cohort studyEstimating treatment benefit for children with sepsis and septic shock treated with extracorporeal life support (ECMO) versus controls. The marginal mean for estimated mortality is shown (y-scale) versus the baseline mortality score (x-scale) for children treated with ECMO (dark blue line) versus controls (light blue line). Full lines indicate the effect estimate, and dashed lines indicate 95% confidence intervals. The benefit threshold, defined as the baseline risk for which ECMO became beneficial, reflects the intersection of both lines at 47.1% predicted risk of mortality. The predicted mortality risk is adjusted for covariates on respiratory failure (PaO2/FiO2 ratio, intubation, treatment with HFOV); cardiovascular (arterial hypotension, shock on presentation, cardiac arrest pre ICU admission), metabolic (high lactate), central nervous system (dilated pupils), and renal (need for renal replacement) dysfunction; and underlying immunosuppression. The naïve baseline risk model is given by F1, where pB is the baseline probability of mortality estimated among non-treated patients, BRS is the Baseline Risk Score, B0 is the intercept, and Bn and X represent a matrix of coefficients and risk factors. F1: Logit(pB) = BRS = B0 + BnX. The treatment model is given by F2, where pD is the estimated mortality rate, BRS is the Baseline Risk Score (from F1), B0 is the intercept, and ECMO is a binary treatment variable (1 = yes). The final term is an interaction term between treatment and the baseline risk score. F2: Logit(pD) = B0 + B1 × BRS + B2 × ECMO + B3 × (ECMO ∗ BRS)Back to article page