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Table 4 Performance of the three models and APACHE II and SAPS II

From: Simplified prognostic model for critically ill patients in resource limited settings in South Asia

Performance Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 APACHE II SAPS II
Score, mean (SD)     17.35 (6.16)  
Probability, mean (SD) 0.20 (0.20) 0.20 (0.16) 0.28 (0.14) 0.26 (0.81) 0.15(0.19)
Optimal cut-off probability 0.18 0.18 0.26 0.2 0.13
Sensitivity (at optimum cut-off) 0.72 0.7 0.63 0.67 0.61
Specificity (at optimum cut-off) 0.77 0.69 0.67 0.71 0.72
AUC (95% CI) 0.812 (0.781–0.842) 0.767 (0.734–0.800) 0.689 (0.664–0.714) 0.707 (0.688–0.727) 0.714 (0.695– 0.732)
H/L C-statistic (p) 16.91 (p = 0.03) 11.31 (p = 0.19) 15.94 (p = 0.01) 124.84 (p < 0.01) 1692.14 (p = 0.000)
Brier score (95% CI) 0.13 (0.11–0.14) 0.14 (0.12–0.15) 0.18 (0.18–0.19) 0.18 (0.17–0.18) 0.20 (0.19– 0.21)
  1. APACHE Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, AUC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, CI confidence interval, H/L Hosmer Lemeshow, SAPS Simplified Acute Physiology Score, SD standard deviation