Table 4 Performance of the three models and APACHE II and SAPS II
From: Simplified prognostic model for critically ill patients in resource limited settings in South Asia
Performance | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | APACHE II | SAPS II |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score, mean (SD) | Â | Â | Â | 17.35 (6.16) | Â |
Probability, mean (SD) | 0.20 (0.20) | 0.20 (0.16) | 0.28 (0.14) | 0.26 (0.81) | 0.15(0.19) |
Optimal cut-off probability | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.26 | 0.2 | 0.13 |
Sensitivity (at optimum cut-off) | 0.72 | 0.7 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
Specificity (at optimum cut-off) | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
AUC (95% CI) | 0.812 (0.781–0.842) | 0.767 (0.734–0.800) | 0.689 (0.664–0.714) | 0.707 (0.688–0.727) | 0.714 (0.695– 0.732) |
H/L C-statistic (p) | 16.91 (p = 0.03) | 11.31 (p = 0.19) | 15.94 (p = 0.01) | 124.84 (p < 0.01) | 1692.14 (p = 0.000) |
Brier score (95% CI) | 0.13 (0.11–0.14) | 0.14 (0.12–0.15) | 0.18 (0.18–0.19) | 0.18 (0.17–0.18) | 0.20 (0.19– 0.21) |