Biomarkers from distinct biological pathways improve early risk stratification in medical emergency patients: the multinational, prospective, observational TRIAGE study

Table 3 Prediction of adverse outcome of clinical models, biomarkers and combinations

	Mortality		ICU admission		High treatment priority
	AUC (95 % CI)	p value	AUC (95 % CI)	p value	AUC (95 % CI)	p value
Models including clinical information readily available at ED admission
Initial clinical model	0.79 (0.77, 0.81)	-	0.70 (0.67, 0.72)	-	0.71 (0.70, 0.72)	-
Initial clinical model plus ProADM	0.84 (0.83, 0.86)	<0.001	0.73 (0.70, 0.75)	<0.001	0.74 (0.73, 0.76)	<0.001
Initial clinical model plus multimarker	0.85 (0.83, 0.87)	<0.001	0.75 (0.73, 0.77)	<0.001	0.75 (0.74, 0.76)	<0.001
Models including full clinical information available at ED discharge
Full clinical model	0.85 (0.83, 0.87)	-	0.75 (0.72, 0.77)	-	0.73 (0.72, 0.74)	-
Full clinical model plus ProADM	0.88 (0.87, 0.90)	<0.001	0.77 (0.75, 0.79)	<0.001	0.76 (0.75, 0.77)	<0.001
Full clinical model plus multimarker	0.89 (0.88, 0.91)	<0.001	0.79 (0.77, 0.81)	<0.001	0.77 (0.75, 0.78)	<0.001
Models including information from initial triage scores
Triage model	0.67 (0.64, 0.70)	-	0.73 (0.72, 0.74)	-	0.79 (0.77, 0.81)	-
Triage model plus ProADM	0.83 (0.81, 0.85)	<0.001	0.76 (0.75, 0.77)	<0.001	0.84 (0.83, 0.86)	<0.001
Triage model plus multimarker	0.84 (0.82, 0.86)	<0.001	0.77 (0.75, 0.78)	<0.001	0.85 (0.83, 0.87)	<0.001

Initial clinical model includes age, gender, main presenting symptom and vital signs (i.e., heart rate, respiratory rate, blood pressure, temperature, consciousness); full clinical model includes age, gender, comorbidities, main presenting symptom, main diagnosis and vital signs; multimarker model includes ProADM, procalcitonin, copeptin; p value refers to comparison of combined model with the clinical model
ICU intensive care unit, AUC area under the curve, CI confidence interval, ED emergency department, ProADM pro-adrenomedullin

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