Development of a triage protocol for patients presenting with gastrointestinal hemorrhage: a prospective cohort study

Table 3 Performance of models in predicting complications within 24 hours of admission from the emergency department

	Sensitivity (95% CI)	Specificity (95% CI)	Positive predictive value (95% CI)	Negative predictive value (95% CI)
Meets at least one BLEED criterion
Development, n = 96 (51%)	0.83 (0.67, 0.98)	0.53 (0.46, 0.61)	0.20 (0.12, 0.28)	0.96 (0.91, 1.0)
Validation, n = 84 (63%)	0.77 (0.60, 0.95)	0.39 (0.30, 0.48)	0.20 (0.12, 0.29)	0.90 (0.81, 0.98)
Red blood or unstable comorbidity or elevated prothrombin time
Development, n = 71 (40%)	0.74 (0.56, 0.92)	0.65 (0.57, 0.92)	0.24 (0.14, 0.34)	0.94 (0.90, 0.99)
Validation, n = 71 (55%)	0.73 (0.62, 0.82)	0.48 (0.43, 0.53)	0.23 (0.17, 0.27)	0.89 (0.85, 0.94)
Red blood or unstable comorbidity
Development, n = 63 (34%)	0.70 (0.51, 0.88)	0.71 (0.64, 0.78)	0.25 (0.15, 0.36)	0.94 (0.90, 0.98)
Validation, n = 66 (50%)	0.73 (0.54, 0.91)	0.55 (0.45, 0.64)	0.24 (0.14, 0.35)	0.91 (0.84, 0.98)

BLEED is an acronym for ongoing Bleeding in the emergency department (red blood per nasogastric tube, hematochezia, or red blood per rectum), Low systolic blood pressure, Elevated prothrombin time, Erratic mental status, and unstable comorbid Disease. CI, confidence interval.

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