Logistic regressive analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary complications after abdominal surgery in elderly patients

To investigate potential prognostic factors and to predict extent of risks for postoperative pulmonary complications by logistic regressive analysis, and to evaluate the role of non-invasive ventilation in reducing the incidence of complications in elderly patients. A stair-climbing test was carried out with ASA score, FEV1, changes of SpO₂ and HR noted at the same time. Logistical regressive analysis based on these parameters were used to assess the relation between potential prognostic factors and postoperative complications. Patients with limited pulmonary reserves were selected using the equation, and the protective effect of non-invasive ventilation on these patients was assessed. The incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications for high-risk patients with non-invasive ventilation was 33.2%, and the incidence of pulmonary complications for high-risk patients without non-invasive ventilation was 67.7%. There was not a significant difference between these two groups with low-risk (P > 0.05). The mathematical model of logistic regressive analysis using the stair-climbing testing combined with other parameters is a simple, reliable method to predict the cardiopulmonary reserved function in elderly patients. Non-invasive ventilation can effectively reduce the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications for high-risk patients, but it has no effect on patients with low risk.