Reference (year of publication) | Model validated | Study population (cohort type, included patients) | No. of participants (no. with predicted outcome) | Study interval | Source of data | Country of inclusion (no. of centres) | Predicted outcome | Method of validation | Evaluation of model performance | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Calibration | Discrimination | Classification | |||||||||
Cho et al. [39] | GO-FAR | Attempted CPR for IHCA | 1011 (162) | 2013–2017 | Retrospective cohort | South Korea (1) | Survival to discharge with CPC 1 or 2 | Fully independent validation | n.r. | AUC: 0.81(CI 0.78–0.84) | Best at 4 for poor outcome: sensitivity 72.5% (CI 69.5–75-5), specificity 78.6% (CI 70.4–85.4), PPV 96.0% (CI 94.4–97.1), NPV 29.0% (CI 26.1–31.9) |
Thai et al. [40] | GO-FAR | Attempted CPR for IHCA | 62.131 (9347) | 2010–2016 | GWTG Registry | USA (386) | Survival to discharge with CPC = 1 | External validation; authors include initial author of score | Calibration plot (score systematically underestimates the likelihood of survival with CPC 1) | AUC: 0.75 (CI 0.748–0.758) | Classification table |
Rubins et al. [41] | GO-FAR | Attempted CPR for IHCA | 403 (133, 70) | 2009–2018 | Retrospective cohort | USA (1) | Survival to discharge and survival to discharge with CPC = 1 | Fully independent validation | n.r. | For survival to discharge with CPC = 1: AUC = 0.68(CI 0.62–0.73) | n.r. |
Piscator et al. [42] | GO-FAR | Attempted CPR for IHCA | 528 (141) (complete cases) | 2013–2014 | SCR Registry | Sweden (6) | Survival to discharge with CPC = 1 | External validation; authors include initial author of score | Calibration plot (GO-FAR model under-predicts the probability of survival with CPC = 1) | Complete cases: AUC = 0.82(CI 0.78–0.86) (AUC = 0.80 (CI 0.76–0.84) for multiple imputation analysis) | Classification table |
Limpawattama et al. [50] | PAM, PAR, MPI | Attempted CPR for IHCA | 278 (72) (166 complete IHCA cases) | 2013–2014 | Retrospective cohort | Thailand (1) | Survival to discharge | Fully independent validation | n.r. | AUC: PAM = 0.62(CI 0.51–0.73), PAR = 0.60(CI 0.49–0.71), MPI = 0.63(CI 0.52–0.73) | n.r. for only IHCA |
Guilbault et al. [43] | CART1, CART2 | Attempted CPR for IHCA | 287 (45) | 2007–2010 | Retrospective cohort | Sweden (1) | Survival to discharge with CPC = 1 | External validation; authors include initial author of score | n.r. | CART 1: AUC = 0.77. CART 2: AUC = 0.71 | Classification table |
Ohlsson et al. [44] | GO-FAR | Attempted CPR for IHCA | 287 (45) | 2007–2010 | Retrospective cohort | Sweden (1) | Survival to discharge with CPC = 1 | External validation; authors include initial author of score | n.r. | AUC: 0.85 (CI 0.78–0.91) | Best sensitivity and specificity at -3.5: 79% and 78% |
Ohlsson et al. [45] | PAM, PAR | Attempted CPR for IHCA | 287 (58) | 2007–2010 | Retrospective cohort | Sweden (1) | Survival to discharge | Fully independent validation | n.r. | AUC: PAM = 0.601(CI 0.528–0.674 p = 0.018), PAR = 0.718(CI 0.647–0.79 p =  < 0.001) | Sensitivity, specificity: PAM > 5 = 21.8%, 94.8%. PAR > 5 = 31%, 94.8% |
Bowker et al. [46] | PAM, PAR, MPI | Attempted CPR for IHCA | 264 (28) | 1994–1996 | Retrospective cohort | UK (1) | Survival to discharge | Fully independent validation | n.r. | n.r | Sensitivity: PAM > 6 = 20%, PAR > 7 = 29%, MPI > 6 = 22% (specificity for all 100%) |
Ebell et al. [51] | PAM, PAR, APACHE III | Attempted CPR for IHCA | 656 (248, 35) | 2–3 years (not further specified) | Retrospective cohort | USA (3) | ROSC with transfer to ICU & survival to discharge | External validation; authors include initial author of score | n.r. | AUC: ROSC: PAR = 0.51(SE = 0.023), PAM = 0.495(SE = 0.023), APACHE III 0.495(SE = 0.023). Survival to discharge: PAR = 0.564(SE = 0.05), PAM = 0.519(SE = 0.051), APACHE III = 0.587(SE = 0.049) | n.r. |
O'keeffe et al. [48] | PAM, PAR | Attempted CPR for IHCA | 274 (25) | 2 years (not further specified) | Retrospective cohort | Ireland (1) | Survival to discharge | External validation; authors include initial author of score | n.r. | AUC: PAM = 0.67 (SE = 0.06) PAR = 0.74 (0.05) | Sensitivity: PAM > 4 = 9.2%, > 8 = 2%. PAR: > 5 = 23.7%, > 8 = 9.6%. Specificity: 100% for both scores at all cut-off points |
Cohn et al. [49] | PAM (minus S3 gallop) | Survivors of attempted CPR for IHCA and matched non-survivors | 86 (43) | 1986–1991 | Retrospective case–control | USA (1) | Survival to discharge | Fully independent validation | n.r. | p < 0.0003; R2 = 9.6% | n.r. |