A novel urinary biomarker predicts 1-year mortality after discharge from intensive care

Table 5 Improvement of model performance for adding ACM128 to an established risk factor or biomarker in 1243 ICU survivors

Risk factor to which ACM128 was added	IDI (95% CI)	NRI (95% CI)	AUC of basic model (95% CI)	Increase in AUC by adding ACM128
Clinical risk factors
Charlson Comorbidity Index	1.12 (0.72, 1.51)	49.3 (35.6, 63.0)	0.746 (0.713, 0.779)	0.042 (0.022, 0.063)
ICU stay	1.24 (0.87, 1.62)	51.3 (37.6, 65.0)	0.719 (0.686, 0.753)	0.057 (0.033, 0.081)
Circulating biomarkers
BNP	1.12 (0.76, 1.47)	41.0 (27.2, 54.8)	0.726 (0.693, 0.759)	0.048 (0.026, 0.069)
hsTnT	1.23 (0.85, 1.60)	47.9 (34.1, 61.6)	0.718 (0.684, 0.752)	0.056 (0.032, 0.080)
ADM	1.14 (0.78, 1.50)	52.8 (39.2, 66.4)	0.724 (0.691, 0.757)	0.049 (0.028, 0.071)
NGAL	1.11 (0.75, 1.71)	52.8 (39.1, 66.4)	0.729 (0.696, 0.763)	0.045 (0.023, 0.066)
Urinary albumin	1.22 (0.84, 1.60)	46.4 (32.7, 60.1)	0.721 (0.686, 0.755)	0.053 (0.029, 0.077)

Abbreviations of the biomarkers are given in Table 2. The analysis includes 245 deaths and 1243 patients at risk. IDN indicates the integrated discrimination improvement, NRI the net reclassification improvement, and AUC to the area under the curve. All estimates, given with 95% confidence interval, were significant (P ≤ 0.0001). All models accounted for center (n = 15) as random effect and for sex, age, mean arterial pressure, estimated glomerular filtration estimated from serum cystatin C, and diabetes mellitus. The basic model included the covariables and the risk factor or biomarker to which ACM128 was added. IDI is the difference between the discrimination slopes of the basic model and the basic model extended with ACM128. The discrimination slope is the difference in predicted probabilities (%) between cases and controls. NRI is the sum of the percent of patients reclassified correctly as cases and controls

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