Describing organ dysfunction in the intensive care unit: a cohort study of 20,000 patients

Table 6 Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for predictors of ICU mortality

Predictor	Number of patients	Area under the ROC curve (area under the PR curve)
Predictor	Number of patients	Predictor alone	Admission SOFA score	Predictor + admission SOFA score	Brier score**
Admission SOFA score	20,007	0.80 (0.53)	–	–	0.117
Maximum SOFA score	20,007	0.82 (0.54)	–	–	0.115
Highest SOFA score	20,007	0.85 (0.60)	–	–	0.106
Difference between day 1 and maximum SOFA score	20,007	0.55 (0.30)	0.80 (0.53)	0.83 (0.55)	0.113
Difference between day 1 and highest SOFA score	20,007	0.58 (0.32)	0.80 (0.53)	0.85 (0.61)	0.105
Difference between day 1 and day 2*	15,736	0.59 (0.25)	0.77 (0.40)	0.81 (0.47)	0.101
Difference between day 1 and day 3*	12,650	0.64 (0.27)	0.72 (0.32)	0.80 (0.45)	0.100
Difference between day 1 and day 4	10,206	0.66 (0.30)	0.69 (0.28)	0.80 (0.44)	0.102
Difference between day 1 and day 5	8326	0.67 (0.30)	0.66 (0.26)	0.79 (0.42)	0.105
Difference between day 2 and day 3*	12,648	0.59 (0.22)	0.72 (0.32)	0.75 (0.36)

*Based on patients who had SOFA scores on both days
**Based on “Predictor alone” for Admission SOFA score, Maximum SOFA score, and Highest SOFA score and based on “Predictor + admission SOFA score” for all other predictors
ROC receiver operating characteristic, PR precision-recall, SOFA Sequential Organ Failure Assessment

ISSN: 1364-8535