From: Emergency department triage prediction of clinical outcomes using machine learning models
Conventional 5 triage levels (ESI) | Actual number of critical care outcome, n (%) | Reference model | Lasso regression | Random forest | Gradient boosted tree | Deep neural network | |||||
Number of correctly identified outcome | Number of predicted outcome | Number of correctly identified outcome | Number of predicted outcome | Number of correctly identified outcome | Number of predicted outcome | Number of correctly identified outcome | Number of predicted outcome | Number of correctly identified outcome | Number of predicted outcome | ||
1: Immediate (n = 768) | 86 (11.1) | 86 | 768 | 72 | 366 | 79 | 460 | 74 | 373 | 76 | 393 |
2: Emergent (n = 5046) | 323 (6.4) | 323 | 5046 | 241 | 2175 | 290 | 2970 | 249 | 2165 | 264 | 2387 |
3: Urgent (n = 19,700) | 331 (1.7) | 0 | 0 | 244 | 5395 | 269 | 7482 | 239 | 5278 | 255 | 5698 |
4: Semi-urgent (n = 12,344) | 64 (0.5) | 0 | 0 | 45 | 1498 | 52 | 2283 | 44 | 1464 | 46 | 1505 |
5: Non-urgent (n = 2783) | 19 (0.7) | 0 | 0 | 15 | 308 | 17 | 457 | 14 | 300 | 16 | 315 |
Overall (n = 40,641) | 823 (2.0) | 409 | 5814 | 617 | 9742 | 707 | 13,652 | 620 | 9580 | 657 | 10,298 |
Conventional 5 triage levels (ESI) | Actual number of hospitalization outcome, n (%) | Reference model | Lasso regression | Random forest | Gradient boosted tree | Deep neural network | |||||
Number of correctly identified outcome | Number of predicted outcome | Number of correctly identified outcome | Number of predicted outcome | Number of correctly identified outcome | Number of predicted outcome | Number of correctly identified outcome | Number of predicted outcome | Number of correctly identified outcome | Number of predicted outcome | ||
1: Immediate (n = 768) | 319 (41.5) | 319 | 768 | 213 | 393 | 259 | 460 | 241 | 434 | 252 | 471 |
2: Emergent (n = 5046) | 1810 (35.9) | 1810 | 5046 | 1398 | 2702 | 1500 | 3039 | 1482 | 2875 | 1563 | 3188 |
3: Urgent (n = 19,700) | 3628 (18.4) | 3628 | 19,700 | 2528 | 7320 | 2716 | 8307 | 2626 | 7512 | 2791 | 8484 |
4: Semi-urgent (n = 12,344) | 717 (5.8) | 0 | 0 | 466 | 2103 | 509 | 2584 | 488 | 2154 | 524 | 2515 |
5: Non-urgent (n = 2783) | 173 (6.2) | 0 | 0 | 105 | 434 | 121 | 577 | 117 | 441 | 120 | 547 |
Overall (n = 40,641) | 6647 (16.4) | 5757 | 25,514 | 4710 | 12,952 | 5105 | 14,967 | 4954 | 13,416 | 5250 | 15,205 |