Table 3 Prediction performance of the reference and machine learning models in the test set
From: Emergency department triage prediction of clinical outcomes using machine learning models
Outcome and model | AUC | P value* | NRI†| P value†| Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Critical care outcome | ||||||||
 Reference model | 0.74 (0.72–0.75) | Reference | Reference | Reference | 0.50 (0.47–0.53) | 0.86 (0.82–0.87) | 0.07 (0.05–0.08) | 0.988 (0.988–0.988) |
 Lasso regression | 0.84 (0.83–0.85) | < 0.001 | 0.39 (0.32–0.46) | < 0.001 | 0.75 (0.72–0.78) | 0.77 (0.75–0.80) | 0.06 (0.06–0.07) | 0.993 (0.993–0.994) |
 Random forest | 0.85 (0.84–0.87) | < 0.001 | 0.07 (0.003–0.14) | 0.04 | 0.86 (0.83–0.88) | 0.68 (0.68–0.71) | 0.05 (0.05–0.06) | 0.996 (0.996–0.996) |
 Gradient boosted decision tree | 0.85 (0.83–0.86) | < 0.001 | 0.32 (0.25–0.38) | < 0.001 | 0.75 (0.73–0.79) | 0.77 (0.75–0.80) | 0.06 (0.06–0.07) | 0.993 (0.993–0.994) |
 Deep neural network | 0.86 (0.85–0.87) | < 0.001 | 0.73 (0.67–0.79) | < 0.001 | 0.80 (0.77–0.83) | 0.76 (0.73–0.78) | 0.06 (0.06–0.07) | 0.995 (0.994–0.995) |
Hospitalization outcome | ||||||||
 Reference model | 0.69 (0.68–0.69) | Reference | Reference | Reference | 0.87 (0.86–0.87) | 0.42 (0.39–0.43) | 0.23 (0.22–0.23) | 0.94 (0.94–0.94) |
 Lasso regression | 0.81 (0.80–0.81) | < 0.001 | 0.53 (0.50–0.55) | < 0.001 | 0.71 (0.70–0.72) | 0.76 (0.75–0.77) | 0.36 (0.35–0.37) | 0.93 (0.93–0.93) |
 Random forest | 0.81 (0.81–0.82) | < 0.001 | 0.66 (0.63–0.68) | < 0.001 | 0.77 (0.76–0.78) | 0.71 (0.70–0.72) | 0.34 (0.33–0.35) | 0.94 (0.94–0.94) |
 Gradient boosted decision tree | 0.82 (0.82–0.83) | < 0.001 | 0.63 (0.61–0.66) | < 0.001 | 0.75 (0.73–0.76) | 0.75 (0.74–0.76) | 0.37 (0.36–0.38) | 0.94 (0.94–0.94) |
 Deep neural network | 0.82 (0.82–0.83) | < 0.001 | 0.68 (0.65–0.70) | < 0.001 | 0.79 (0.78–0.80) | 0.71 (0.69–0.72) | 0.35 (0.34–0.36) | 0.95 (0.94–0.95) |