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Table 5 Risk stratification table using five groups of predicted probability

From: Development and internal validation of the multivariable CIPHER (Collaborative Integrated Pregnancy High-dependency Estimate of Risk) clinical risk prediction model

Predicted probability range Women in range, n (%) Observed outcome in range, n (%) Sensitivity (95% CI) Specificity (95% CI) PPV (95% CI) NPV (95% CI) LR (95% CI)
<5% 236 (30.7) 5 (2.1) 0.31 (0.13–0.77)
5–9.9% 180 (23.4) 11 (8.7) 96.1 (90.6–98.5) 36.0 (32.2–39.8) 22.9 (19.4–26.7) 97.9 (94.8–99.2) 0.93 (0.52–1.67)
10–24.9% 212 (27.6) 40 (18.9) 87.4 (80.0–92.4) 62.3 (58.4–66.0) 31.4 (26.7–36.6) 96.2 (93.7–97.7) 3.34 (2.51–4.34)
25–49.9% 82 (10.7) 32 (39.0) 55.9 (46.8–64.6) 89.1 (86.4–91.3) 50.4 (41.9–58.8) 91.1 (88.5–93.1) 9.18 (6.16–13.69)
≥50% 59 (7.7) 39 (66.1) 30.7 (23.0–39.6) 96.9 (95.1–98.0) 66.1 (52.5–77.6) 87.6 (84.9–89.9) 27.97 (16.91–46.27)
Total 769 127      
  1. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values calculated using the upper limit of the risk range to define a positive test.
  2. Abbreviations: CI confidence interval, LR likelihood ratio, NPV negative predictive value, PPV positive predictive value