Figure 1

Probability of in-hospital death by admission mean arterial pressure, temperature, and respiratory and pulse rates. The figure shows smoothed predictions for the probability of in-hospital death according to the admission mean arterial pressure (MAP), temperature, and respiratory and pulse rates among 167 patients hospitalized with sepsis in April to June 2011 in Uganda. Admission MAP and temperature predicted mortality with approximately U-shaped relationships; mortality increased as either variable increased or decreased starting from a reference range (70 to 109 mmHg for MAP and 36.6 to 38.5°C for temperature). Admission respiratory and pulse rates predicted mortality in roughly linear relationships; at respiratory rates ≥30 cycles/minute mortality appeared to increase approximately linearly as respiratory rate increased. For the pulse rate, mortality did not go above average until a pulse rate ≥100 beats/minute and tapered off close to the average mortality for this population (about 23%) as the pulse rate increased. Using these patterns, we determined cutoffs (shown by arrows on the figure) below or above which we gave a score of 1 in the proposed prognostic index.