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Table 2 External validation of SICK, LODS and PEDIA in febrile Ugandan children admitted to hospital

From: Prospective validation of pediatric disease severity scores to predict mortality in Ugandan children presenting with malaria and non-malaria febrile illness

Score Discrimination AUC, 95% CI Compare AUCs Youden Index J, Cut-off Sensitivity, 95% CI a Specificity, 95% CI a Calibration Hosmer-Lemeshow
Overall Score Performance       
SICK 0.846, 0.83-0.86 P = 0.032 (S v. L)* 0.6328, >2.4 81.8, 72.8-88.9 81.5, 79.7-83.1 χ2 = 21.11, df = 8, P = 0.007
LODS 0.898, 0.88-0.91 P = 0.865 (L v. P) 0.6926, >1 81.8, 72.8-88.9 87.4, 85.9-88.9 χ2 = 0.072, df = 1, P = 0.789
PEDIA 0.896, 0.88-0.91 P = 0.016 (P v. S)* 0.6727, >2 86.9, 78.6-97.1 80.4, 78.6-82.1 χ2 = 4.45, df = 3, P = 0.217
Modified Score Performance b       
SICK 0.854, 0.84-0.87 P = 0.059 (S v. L) 0.6269, >2.4 85.9, 77.4-92.0 76.8, 74.9-78.7 χ2 = 20.42, df = 8, P = 0.009
LODS 0.897, 0.88-0.91 P = 0.801 (L v. P) 0.6915, >1 81.8, 72.8-88.9 87.3, 85.8-88.8 χ2 = 0.066, df = 1, P = 0.797
PEDIA 0.894, 0.88-0.91 P = 0.041 (P v. S)* 0.6703, >3 86.9, 78.6-92.8 78.4, 76.5-80.2 χ2 = 3.60, df = 4, P = 0.462
Malaria c       
SICK 0.856, 0.84-0.87 P = 0.036 (S v. L)* 0.6718, >2.4 85.9, 75.0-93.4 81.3, 79.2-83.2 χ2 = 20.54, df = 8, P = 0.008
LODS 0.919, 0.90-0.93 P = 0.964 (L v. P) 0.7282, >1 85.9, 75.0-93.4 86.9, 85.1-88.5 χ2 = 0.59, df = 1, P = 0.447
PEDIA 0.918, 0.90-0.93 P = 0.018 (P v. S)* 0.7186, >2 92.2, 82.7-97.4 79.7, 77.6-81.7 χ2 = 8.14, df = 3, P = 0.043
NMFI d       
SICK 0.824, 0.79-0.86 P = 0.390 (S v. L) 0.5955, >2.9 72.7, 54.5-86.7 82.3, 78.5-85.7 χ2 = 6.79, df = 8, P = 0.560
LODS 0.862, 0.83-0.89 P = 0.859 (L v. P) 0.6517, >1 75.8, 57.7-88.9 89.4, 86.3-92.1 χ2 = 1.37, df = 1, P = 0.242
PEDIA 0.865, 0.83-0.89 P = 0.234 (P v. S) 0.6173, >2 78.8, 61.1-91.0 82.9, 79.2-86.3 χ2 = 0.34, df = 3, P = 0.952
Early Death e       
SICK 0.853, 0.84-0.87 P = 0.009 (S v. L)* 0.6499, >2.4 83.5, 73.9-90.7 81.5, 79.7-83.1 χ2 = 15.66, df = 8, P = 0.049
LODS 0.919, 0.91-0.93 P = 0.396 (L v. P) 0.7450, >1 87.1, 78.0-93.4 87.4, 85.9-88.9 χ2 = 0.33, df = 1, P = 0.565
PEDIA 0.910, 0.90-0.92 P = 0.012 (P v. S)* 0.6981, >2 89.4, 80.8-95.0 80.4, 78.6-82.1 χ2 = 5.83, df = 3, P = 0.120
Late Death f       
SICK 0.803, 0.79-0.82 P = 0.646 (S v. L) 0.5943, >2.2 71.4, 41.9-91.6 81.5, 79.7-83.1 χ2 = 9.88, df = 8, P = 0.273
LODS 0.769, 0.75-0.79 P = 0.243 (L v. P) 0.4546, >0 50.0, 23.0-77.0 87.4, 85.9-88.9 χ2 = 0.34, df = 1, P = 0.560
PEDIA 0.815, 0.80-0.83 P = 0.833 (P v. S) 0.5942, >3 71.4, 41.9-91.6 88.0, 86.5-89.4 χ2 = 0.061, df = 3, P = 0.996
  1. Total data missing: LODS, 1.2%; SICK, 10.3%; PEDIA, 4.8%), default models consider missing data normal. aSensitivity and specificity calculated based on the following cut-offs (LODS, >1; SICK, >2.4; PEDIA, >2); bmissing data considered abnormal in score calculation (see Additional file 1: Table S1 for description of missing data by variable); cmalaria positive: positive by RDT (pLDH or HRP2) or microscopy (n = 1,589, 64 deaths; prevalence, 4.03%); dmalaria negative: negative by RDT (pLDH and HRP2) and microscopy (n = 496, 33 deaths; prevalence, 6.65%); en = 2,075 (1,990 survivors and 85 deaths); fn = 2,004 (1,990 survivors and 14 deaths).*Compare AUCs (SICK, S; LODS, L; PEDIA, P) by method of Delong et al. AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; LODS, Lambaréné Organ Dysfunction Score; PEDIA, Pediatric Early Death Index for Africa; SICK, Signs of Inflammation in Children that Kill.