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Table 4 Value of further research on IVIG for severe sepsis/septic shock: population EVPI estimates (WTP = £20,000), according to alternative synthesis models of effectiveness evidence (see Table 2 for detailed specification of the models)

From: Intravenous immunoglobulin for severe sepsis and septic shock: clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and value of a further randomised controlled trial

Scenarios for alternative synthesis models of effectiveness evidence

EVPI per patient

Population EVPI ( Time horizon  = 10 years)

M1

£1,377

£392,994,216

M2

£3,563

£1,017,023,732

M3

£4,791

£1,367,426,550

M4a

£3,146

£897,945,285

M4b

£2,113

£603,018,958

  1. EVPI evaluates the expected cost of current uncertainty by accounting both for the probability that a decision based on existing evidence is wrong and for the magnitude of the consequences of making the wrong decisions. EVPI, expected value of perfect information.