Prohormones for prediction of adverse medical outcome in community-acquired pneumonia and lower respiratory tract infections

Table 4 Performance of multivariable models for the prediction of death, ICU or complication in CAP patients (n = 925)

Endpoint	Model	Bootstrap-corrected accuracy measure	Leave-one-hospital-out cross-validation Accuracy calculated on left out hospital
			Mean	Range
Serious complication*	CURB covariates
	-AUC	0.75	0.75	0.67 to 0.83
	-Brier score	0.11	0.11	0.09 to 0.15
	CURB covariates + proADM
	-AUC	0.76	0.76	0.72 to 0.81
	-Brier score	0.10	0.11	0.09 to 0.14
	CURB covariates + all biomarkers
	-AUC	0.76	0.76	0.71 to 0.81
	-Brier score	0.11	0.11	0.09 to 0.14
Death	CURB covariates
	-AUC	0.80	0.81	0.72 to 0.87
	-Brier score	0.05	0.05	0.03 to 0.07
	CURB covariates + proADM
	-AUC	0.81	0.82	0.71 to 0.87
	-Brier score	0.05	0.05	0.03 to 0.07
	CURB covariates + all biomarkers
	-AUC	0.80	0.81	0.72 to 0.88
	-Brier score	0.05	0.05	0.03 to 0.07

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