Figure 4
From: Model for predicting short-term mortality of severe sepsis
Comparison of our prediction model with other, widely used models. The final study model (blue line) used on all episodes of severe sepsis showed good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) chi-squared 15.3, P = 0.06) and good discrimination (area under the curve (AUC)- receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve, 0.76). Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Mortality Probability models II0 (MPM0 II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II scores were significantly less accurate than our model, with AUCs of 0.73, 0.66 and 0.72, respectively (P value < 10-4 in all cases), and poor calibration (HL chi-squared P values of 0.03, < 10-4 and 0.02, respectively).