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Table 4 Performance characteristics of APACHE II, SAPS II and ICNARC outcome prediction models

From: Outcomes following oesophagectomy in patients with oesophageal cancer: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database

MODEL APACHE II ICNARC SAPS II
Eligible admissions, n (%) 5767 (79.8) 5767 (79.8) 5767 (79.8)
Observed mortality, n (%) 613 (10.6) 613 (10.6) 608 (10.5)
Predicted mortality, n (%) 782.8 (13.6) 729.0 (12.6) 567.0 (9.8)
AUC (95% CI) 0.63
(0.61 to 0.65)
0.67
(0.65 to 0.69)
0.65
(0.63 to 0.67)
Hosmer-Lemeshow C*    
   Chi-squared (10) 90.8 29.6 295.7
   P value < 0.001 0.001 < 0.001
Cox's calibration regression    
   Intercept (95% CI) -1.01
(-1.22 to -0.80)
-0.42
(-0.64 to -0.20)
-1.12
(-1.30 to -0.95)
   Slope (95% CI) 0.59
(0.48 to 0.69)
0.88
(0.77 to 1.00)
0.40
(0.33 to 0.47)
   Chi-squared (2) 106.4 27.9 291.4
   P value < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001
Brier's score 0.097 0.091 0.101
  1. The analysis is performed on those individuals meeting criteria for all three of the models.
  2. APACHE = Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation; AUC = area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI = confidence interval; ICNARC = Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre; SAPS = Simplified Acute Physiology Score.