Table 4 Performance characteristics of APACHE II, SAPS II and ICNARC outcome prediction models
MODEL | APACHE II | ICNARC | SAPS II |
|---|---|---|---|
Eligible admissions, n (%) | 5767 (79.8) | 5767 (79.8) | 5767 (79.8) |
Observed mortality, n (%) | 613 (10.6) | 613 (10.6) | 608 (10.5) |
Predicted mortality, n (%) | 782.8 (13.6) | 729.0 (12.6) | 567.0 (9.8) |
AUC (95% CI) | 0.63 (0.61 to 0.65) | 0.67 (0.65 to 0.69) | 0.65 (0.63 to 0.67) |
Hosmer-Lemeshow C* | Â | Â | Â |
   Chi-squared (10) | 90.8 | 29.6 | 295.7 |
   P value | < 0.001 | 0.001 | < 0.001 |
Cox's calibration regression | Â | Â | Â |
   Intercept (95% CI) | -1.01 (-1.22 to -0.80) | -0.42 (-0.64 to -0.20) | -1.12 (-1.30 to -0.95) |
   Slope (95% CI) | 0.59 (0.48 to 0.69) | 0.88 (0.77 to 1.00) | 0.40 (0.33 to 0.47) |
   Chi-squared (2) | 106.4 | 27.9 | 291.4 |
   P value | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 |
Brier's score | 0.097 | 0.091 | 0.101 |