Skip to main content

Table 3 Factors predicting increased risk of acute hospital mortality

From: Outcomes following oesophagectomy in patients with oesophageal cancer: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database

     Adjusted
  Number of admissions Number of deaths Percentage of deaths OR (95% CI) P value
Age (years)      < 0.001
   < 50 582 31 5.3 Reference  
   50 to 59 1651 125 7.6 1.35 (0.84 to 2.17)  
   60 to 69 2608 249 9.6 1.68 (1.07 to 2.63)  
   70 to 79 2037 328 16.1 2.64 (1.69 to 4.15)  
   80 + 217 45 20.7 3.84 (2.14 to 6.87)  
Sex      0.198
   Female 1766 218 12.3 1.15 (0.93 to 1.42)  
   Male 5329 560 10.5 Reference  
Condition in past medical history      
   Chemotherapy 1672 144 8.6 0.80 (0.64 to 1.02) 0.067
   Radiotherapy 182 23 12.6 1.38 (0.81 to 2.36) 0.235
   Biopsy proven cirrhosis 5 1 20.0 2.10 (0.17 to 25.45) 0.561
   Severe cardiovascular disease 27 3 11.1 0.73 (0.16 to 3.40) 0.691
   Severe respiratory disease 40 9 22.5 2.27 (0.87 to 5.90) 0.920
   Chronic renal replacement therapy 7 3 42.9 3.62 (0.71 to 18.43) 0.121
Mechanical ventilation      0.025
   No 3459 284 8.2 Reference  
   Yes 3624 492 13.6 1.24 (1.03 to 1.50)  
P/F ratio (kPa)      < 0.001
   < 10 105 27 25.7 3.70 (1.70 to 8.07)  
   10 to 19 1034 157 15.2 2.65 (1.49 to 4.69)  
   20 to 29 2212 259 11.7 2.04 (1.17 to 3.55)  
   30 to 39 1942 201 10.4 1.90 (1.08 to 3.33)  
   40 to 49 1107 80 7.2 1.42 (0.77 to 2.57)  
   50 to 59 349 18 5.2 Reference  
   60+ 146 12 8.2 1.90 (0.77 to 4.74)  
Lowest arterial pH      < 0.001
   < 7.15 132 40 30.3 1.85 (1.13 to 3.01)  
   7.15 to 7.24 555 114 20.5 2.00 (1.49 to 2.68)  
   7.25 to 7.29 1114 146 13.1 1.42 (1.11 to 1.84)  
   7.30 to 7.34 2838 244 8.6 Reference  
   7.35 to 7.39 1568 146 9.3 1.29 (1.01 to 1.66)  
   7.40 to 7.44 625 56 9.0 1.05 (0.69 to 1.59)  
   7.45 + 66 8 12.1 1.98 (0.72 to 5.48)  
Serum albumin (g l-1)      < 0.001
   < 15.0 586 123 21.0 2.58 (1.87 to 3.55)  
   15.0 to 19.9 1426 192 13.5 1.73 (1.31 to 2.29)  
   20.0 to 24.9 1857 155 8.4 1.10 (0.83 to 1.46)  
   25.0 to 29.9 1265 86 6.8 Reference  
   30.0 to 34.9 342 25 7.3 1.15 (0.71 to 1.87)  
   35.0 + 71 8 11.3 2.02 (0.91 to 4.48)  
Serum urea (mmol l-1)      0.016
   < 6.2 4317 390 9.0 Reference  
   6.2 to 7.1 886 90 10.2 0.95 (0.72 to 1.26)  
   7.2 to 14.3 1194 177 14.8 1.24 (0.96 to 1.60)  
   14.4 + 81 25 30.9 2.49 (1.37 to 4.53)  
Serum creatinine (μmol l-1)      0.014
   < 50 115 15 13.0 1.25 (0.62 to 2.50)  
   50 to 99 5014 456 9.1 Reference  
   100 to 149 1571 208 13.2 1.17 (0.93 to 1.48)  
   150 + 237 70 29.5 2.01 (1.32 to 3.06)  
  1. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.71; 95% CI = 0.69 to 0.73. CI = confidence interval; P/F ratio = partial pressure of arterial oxygen (PaO2) divided by the fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2); OR = odds ratio.