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Table 3 Factors predicting increased risk of acute hospital mortality

From: Outcomes following oesophagectomy in patients with oesophageal cancer: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database

    

Adjusted

 

Number of admissions

Number of deaths

Percentage of deaths

OR (95% CI)

P value

Age (years)

    

< 0.001

   < 50

582

31

5.3

Reference

 

   50 to 59

1651

125

7.6

1.35 (0.84 to 2.17)

 

   60 to 69

2608

249

9.6

1.68 (1.07 to 2.63)

 

   70 to 79

2037

328

16.1

2.64 (1.69 to 4.15)

 

   80 +

217

45

20.7

3.84 (2.14 to 6.87)

 

Sex

    

0.198

   Female

1766

218

12.3

1.15 (0.93 to 1.42)

 

   Male

5329

560

10.5

Reference

 

Condition in past medical history

     

   Chemotherapy

1672

144

8.6

0.80 (0.64 to 1.02)

0.067

   Radiotherapy

182

23

12.6

1.38 (0.81 to 2.36)

0.235

   Biopsy proven cirrhosis

5

1

20.0

2.10 (0.17 to 25.45)

0.561

   Severe cardiovascular disease

27

3

11.1

0.73 (0.16 to 3.40)

0.691

   Severe respiratory disease

40

9

22.5

2.27 (0.87 to 5.90)

0.920

   Chronic renal replacement therapy

7

3

42.9

3.62 (0.71 to 18.43)

0.121

Mechanical ventilation

    

0.025

   No

3459

284

8.2

Reference

 

   Yes

3624

492

13.6

1.24 (1.03 to 1.50)

 

P/F ratio (kPa)

    

< 0.001

   < 10

105

27

25.7

3.70 (1.70 to 8.07)

 

   10 to 19

1034

157

15.2

2.65 (1.49 to 4.69)

 

   20 to 29

2212

259

11.7

2.04 (1.17 to 3.55)

 

   30 to 39

1942

201

10.4

1.90 (1.08 to 3.33)

 

   40 to 49

1107

80

7.2

1.42 (0.77 to 2.57)

 

   50 to 59

349

18

5.2

Reference

 

   60+

146

12

8.2

1.90 (0.77 to 4.74)

 

Lowest arterial pH

    

< 0.001

   < 7.15

132

40

30.3

1.85 (1.13 to 3.01)

 

   7.15 to 7.24

555

114

20.5

2.00 (1.49 to 2.68)

 

   7.25 to 7.29

1114

146

13.1

1.42 (1.11 to 1.84)

 

   7.30 to 7.34

2838

244

8.6

Reference

 

   7.35 to 7.39

1568

146

9.3

1.29 (1.01 to 1.66)

 

   7.40 to 7.44

625

56

9.0

1.05 (0.69 to 1.59)

 

   7.45 +

66

8

12.1

1.98 (0.72 to 5.48)

 

Serum albumin (g l-1)

    

< 0.001

   < 15.0

586

123

21.0

2.58 (1.87 to 3.55)

 

   15.0 to 19.9

1426

192

13.5

1.73 (1.31 to 2.29)

 

   20.0 to 24.9

1857

155

8.4

1.10 (0.83 to 1.46)

 

   25.0 to 29.9

1265

86

6.8

Reference

 

   30.0 to 34.9

342

25

7.3

1.15 (0.71 to 1.87)

 

   35.0 +

71

8

11.3

2.02 (0.91 to 4.48)

 

Serum urea (mmol l-1)

    

0.016

   < 6.2

4317

390

9.0

Reference

 

   6.2 to 7.1

886

90

10.2

0.95 (0.72 to 1.26)

 

   7.2 to 14.3

1194

177

14.8

1.24 (0.96 to 1.60)

 

   14.4 +

81

25

30.9

2.49 (1.37 to 4.53)

 

Serum creatinine (μmol l-1)

    

0.014

   < 50

115

15

13.0

1.25 (0.62 to 2.50)

 

   50 to 99

5014

456

9.1

Reference

 

   100 to 149

1571

208

13.2

1.17 (0.93 to 1.48)

 

   150 +

237

70

29.5

2.01 (1.32 to 3.06)

 
  1. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.71; 95% CI = 0.69 to 0.73. CI = confidence interval; P/F ratio = partial pressure of arterial oxygen (PaO2) divided by the fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2); OR = odds ratio.
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