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Table 5 SMART: Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test results for prediction of shock and organ failure and survival in severe sepsis from baseline data only

From: Prospectively validated predictions of shock and organ failure in individual septic surgical patients: the Systemic Mediator Associated Response Test

 

Day

Independent variable

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

14

21

28

Chest radiography score* -

 

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

ARDS

24.702

0.9667

100.87

61.879

35.996

11.435

102.25

18.64

4.524

3.3114

 

(0.0009)

(NS)

(0.0001)

(0.001)

(0.0001)

(0.2470)

(0.0001)

(0.0061)

(0.807)

(NS)

DIC

7.4046

4.581

4.0234

4.3578

13.231

9.4627

31.293

617.34

9.247

-

 

(0.3880)

(0.8692)

(0.8550)

(0.8235)

(0.0667)

(0.221)

(0.0001)

(0.0001)

(NS)

 

Hepatobiliary failure

14.349

5032

15.346

2.8502

22.643

18.508

16.223

242.39

24.656

7.3931

 

(0.0453)

(0.0001)

(0.0318)

(0.9434)

(0.0121)

(0.0177)

(0.0232)

(0.0001)

(0.0009)

(0.4949)

Renal insufficiency

67.172

200.8

22.777

18.597

26.06

131.14

37.378

12.759

25.071

15.32

 

(0.0001)

(0.0001)

(0.0037)

(0.0172)

(0.0005)

(0.0001)

(0.0001)

(NS)

(0.0007)

(0.0532)

Shock

12.115

10.962

10.233

20.961

0.0443

2.2016

22.485

119.08

15.938

0.0009

 

(0.1461)

(0.2783)

(0.2491)

(0.0073)

(NS)

(NS)

(0.0075)

(0.0001)

(0.0433)

(NS)

GCS score < 11

405.35

67.866

65.427

22.233

83.405

46.674

21.497

21.66

137.24

12.087

 

(0.0001)

(0.0001)

(0.0001)

(0.0001)

(0.0001)

(0.0001)

(0.0059)

(0.010)

(0.0001)

(0.0977)

  1. Values are Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test statistics (P values). *Chest radiography score = 0-4 quadrants pulmonary edema. Organ failure and shock definitions were from Fisher et al [18]. GCS Glascow Coma Scale; NS, not significant.