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Table 4 SMART: prediction of shock and organ failure and survival in severe sepsis from baseline plus serial data

From: Prospectively validated predictions of shock and organ failure in individual septic surgical patients: the Systemic Mediator Associated Response Test

  Day
Independent variable 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 14 21 28
Chest radiography score* - 0.847 0.902 0.807 0.859 0.629 0.709 0.467 0.794 1.000
Mechanical ventilation - - - - 0.857 1.000 0.905 0.697 0.827 0.913
ARDS - 0.782 0.586 0.583 0.808 0.884 0.759 0.861 1.000 4.000
DIC - 0.857 0.923 0.919 0.620 0.914 0.466 - 0.450 -
Hepatobiliary failure - 0.778 0.679 0.940 0.888 0.890 0.843 0.856 0.947 0.938
Renal insufficiency - 0.858 0.805 0.983 0.892 0.699 0.857 0.921 0.865 0.646
Shock - 0.471 0.193 0.817 0.452 0.532 0.474 0.500 0.352 -
Survival Status - 0.740 0.625 0.586 0.620 0.620 0.541 0.695 0.919 0.874
GCS score < 11 - 0.667 0.760 0.576 0.617 0.604 0.708 0.500 0.873 -
  1. Values are AUC ROC determinations. *Chest radiography score = 0-4 quadrants pulmonary edema. Organ failure and shock definitions were from Fisher et al [18]. -, training cohort model failure; GCS, Glascow Coma Scale.