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Table 3 SMART: prediction of shock and organ failure in severely septic surgical patients from baseline data only

From: Prospectively validated predictions of shock and organ failure in individual septic surgical patients: the Systemic Mediator Associated Response Test

 

Day

Independent variable

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

14

21

28

Chest radiography score*

0.874

0.802

0.798

0.761

0.820

0.625

0.686

0.598

0.786

1.000

ARDS

0.776

0.829

0.523

0.687

0.698

0.856

0.755

0.867

0.966

-

DIC

0.833

0.857

0.851

0.821

0.823

0.808

0.817

0.323

-

-

Hepatobiliary failure

0.788

0.796

0.631

0.954

0.832

0.856

0.778

0.733

0.724

0.921

Renal insufficiency

0.845

0.779

0.913

0.879

0.827

0.650

0.696

0.703

0.740

0.809

Shock

0.756

0.567

0.479

0.627

-

0.760

0.564

0.500

0.438

-

GCS score < 11

0.725

0.563

0.602

0.591

0.649

0.526

0.564

0.360

0.460

0.482

  1. Values are AUC ROC determinations. *Chest radiography score = 0-4 quadrants pulmonary edema. Organ failure and shock definitions were from Fisher et al [18]. -, training cohort model failure; GCS, Glascow Coma Scale.
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