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Table 3 SMART: prediction of shock and organ failure in severely septic surgical patients from baseline data only

From: Prospectively validated predictions of shock and organ failure in individual septic surgical patients: the Systemic Mediator Associated Response Test

  Day
Independent variable 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 14 21 28
Chest radiography score* 0.874 0.802 0.798 0.761 0.820 0.625 0.686 0.598 0.786 1.000
ARDS 0.776 0.829 0.523 0.687 0.698 0.856 0.755 0.867 0.966 -
DIC 0.833 0.857 0.851 0.821 0.823 0.808 0.817 0.323 - -
Hepatobiliary failure 0.788 0.796 0.631 0.954 0.832 0.856 0.778 0.733 0.724 0.921
Renal insufficiency 0.845 0.779 0.913 0.879 0.827 0.650 0.696 0.703 0.740 0.809
Shock 0.756 0.567 0.479 0.627 - 0.760 0.564 0.500 0.438 -
GCS score < 11 0.725 0.563 0.602 0.591 0.649 0.526 0.564 0.360 0.460 0.482
  1. Values are AUC ROC determinations. *Chest radiography score = 0-4 quadrants pulmonary edema. Organ failure and shock definitions were from Fisher et al [18]. -, training cohort model failure; GCS, Glascow Coma Scale.