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Table 3 Measures of discrimination, calibration and model fit for SHARF T0, Mehta and UK APACHE II

From: Case mix, outcome and activity for patients with severe acute kidney injury during the first 24 hours after admission to an adult, general critical care unit: application of predictive models from a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database

 

SHARF T0

SHARF II0

Mehta

UK APACHE II

Discrimination (AUC [95% CI])

0.632 (0.624–0.640)

0.668 (0.660–0.676)

0.693 (0.686–0.701)

0.74 (0.733–0.748)

Calibration (mortality ratio [95% CI])

0.759 (0.747–0.771)

0.950 (0.936–0.965)

1.223 (1.205–1.242)

1.147 (1.129–1.165)

Hosmer-Lemeshow (C-statistic [P value])

20,894 (< 0.001)

2,575 (< 0.001)

2,170 (< 0.001)

575 (< 0.001)

Cox's regression calibration:

    

   Slope (95% CI)

0.247 (0.229–0.266)

0.415 (0.390–0.439)

0.444 (0.417–0.470)

0.753 (0.720–0.787)

   Intercept (95% CI)

-0.195 (-0.243 to -0.153)

0.005 (-0.031 to -0.040)

0.314 (0.278–0.350)

0.306 (0.269–0.343)

χ2 (1) (P value)a

11,598 (< 0.001)

2,303 (< 0.001)

2,602 (< 0.001)

596 (< 0.001)

Fit (Shapiro's Q [R statistic])

0.392

0.491

0.487

0.539

  1. aChi-squared statistic on one degree of freedom (and associated P value) from a likelihood ratio test of slope = 1, intercept = 0 in Cox's regression calibration model. APACHE, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation; AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; SHARF, Stuivenberg Hospital Acute Renal Failure.