Case mix, outcomes and comparison of risk prediction models for admissions to adult, general and specialist critical care units for head injury: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database

Table 4 Discrimination of Glasgow Coma Score compared with risk prediction models

	All admissions with GCS recorded		Admissions eligible for all models
	N	AUC (95 percent CI)	N	AUC (95 percent CI)
First 24 h GCS	4,527	0.81 (0.80–0.82)	2,471	0.81 (0.79–0.83)
APACHE II	3,509	0.85 (0.84–0.87)	2,471	0.85 (0.84–0.87)
APACHE III	3,777	0.89 (0.88–0.90)	2,471	0.90 (0.89–0.91)
SAPS II	3,672	0.89 (0.88–0.90)	2,471	0.89 (0.88–0.90)
MPM II	3,213	0.90 (0.89–0.91)	2,471	0.91 (0.90–0.92)
ICNARC	4,513	0.90 (0.89–0.91)	2,471	0.90 (0.89–0.91)
Pre-sedation GCS	6,684	0.70 (0.69–0.71)	3,745	0.71 (0.69–0.72)
APACHE II	5,671	0.72 (0.70–0.73)	3,745	0.72 (0.70–0.74)
APACHE III	5,573	0.74 (0.72–0.75)	3,745	0.74 (0.72–0.76)
SAPS II	5,159	0.80 (0.79–0.82)	3,745	0.81 (0.80–0.83)
MPM II	4,440	0.82 (0.81–0.83)	3,745	0.82 (0.81–0.83)
ICNARC	6,671	0.80 (0.79–0.82)	3,745	0.81 (0.80–0.83)

APACHE, Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation; AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; GCS, Glasgow Coma Score; ICNARC, Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre; MPM, Mortality Probability Models; SAPS, Simplified Acute Physiology Score.

ISSN: 1364-8535