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Table 3 Lemeshow–Hosmer goodness of fit C-statistics for the six systems

From: Assessment of six mortality prediction models in patients admitted with severe sepsis and septic shock to the intensive care unit: a prospective cohort study

Decile

n

PD

AD

PS

AS

Decile

n

PD

AD

PS

AS

MPM II 0

APACHE II

1

25

1.45

3

23.55

22

1

21

2.40

1

18.60

20

2

25

3.78

6

21.22

19

2

21

4.98

3

16.02

18

3

25

6.45

10

18.55

15

3

21

7.21

9

13.79

12

4

25

9.60

13

15.40

12

4

21

9.93

11

11.07

10

5

25

13.47

18

11.53

7

5

21

12.49

12

8.51

9

6

25

16.97

18

8.03

7

6

20

14.06

17

5.94

3

7

25

18.81

18

6.19

7

7

20

15.95

17

4.05

3

8

25

20.53

20

4.47

5

8

20

17.08

17

2.92

3

9

25

22.69

25

2.31

0

9

20

17.94

11

2.06

9

10

25

24.29

21

0.71

4

10

20

18.91

17

1.09

3

C-statistic

 

29.79

P < 0.001

  

C-statistic

 

34.89

P < 0.001

  

MPM II 24

Customized MPM II 24

1

21

1.78

4

19.22

17

1

21

2.65

4

18.35

17

2

21

3.90

7

17.10

14

2

21

4.87

7

16.13

14

3

21

7.12

2

13.88

19

3

21

7.68

2

13.32

19

4

21

10.90

7

10.10

14

4

21

10.74

7

10.26

14

5

21

13.32

11

7.68

10

5

21

12.69

11

8.31

10

6

21

15.23

13

5.77

8

6

21

14.31

13

6.69

8

7

21

17.02

19

3.98

2

7

21

15.93

19

5.07

2

8

21

18.53

15

2.47

6

8

21

17.45

15

3.55

6

9

20

18.88

18

1.12

2

9

20

18.10

18

1.90

2

10

20

19.65

20

0.35

0

10

20

19.22

20

0.78

0

C-statistic

 

24.82

P = 0.002

  

C-statistic

 

17.51

P = 0.03

  

SAPS II

Customized SAPS II

1

21

0.88

3

20.12

18

1

21

2.24

3

18.76

18

2

21

2.71

1

18.29

20

2

21

4.39

1

16.61

20

3

21

5.22

9

15.78

12

3

21

6.62

9

14.38

12

4

21

8.20

12

12.80

9

4

21

8.96

12

12.04

9

5

21

11.57

10

9.43

11

5

21

11.50

10

9.50

11

6

21

14.85

17

6.15

4

6

21

14.08

17

6.92

4

7

20

16.19

14

3.81

6

7

20

15.18

14

4.82

6

8

20

17.19

14

2.81

6

8

20

16.17

14

3.83

6

9

20

18.18

16

1.82

4

9

20

17.25

16

2.75

4

10

20

19.41

19

0.59

1

10

20

18.87

19

1.13

1

C-statistic

 

23.60

P = 0.003

  

C-statistic

 

11.48

P = 0.18

  
  1. AD, actually died; APACHE, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation; AS, actually survived; MPM, Mortality Probability Model; PD, predicted to die; PS, predicted to survive; SAPS, Simplified Acute Physiology Score.