Comparison of risk prediction scoring systems for ward patients: a retrospective nested case-control study

Table 2 Comparison of areas under the receiver operating curves for the nine scoring systems

Score	0-12 hours	12-24 hours	24-48 hours	48-72 hours
SOFA	0.78 ^a (0.74-0.81)	0.68 ^a (0.63-0.73)	0.66 (0.60-0.71)	0.64 (0.57-0.71)
PIRO	0.76 (0.72-0.79)	0.66 (0.61-0.71)	0.66 (0.61-0.72)	0.68 (0.61-0.75)
ViEWS	0.75 (0.71-0.79)	0.67 (0.62-0.72)	0.64 (0.58-0.69)	0.66 (0.59-0.73)
SCS	0.74 (0.70-0.78)	0.67 (0.62-0.72)	0.63 (0.57-0.69)	0.63 (0.56-0.71)
MEDS^b	0.74 (0.70-0.78)	0.68 (0.63-0.73)	0.69 ^a (0.63-0.74)	0.71 ^a (0.64-0.78)
MEWS	0.73 (0.69-0.77)	0.66 (0.61-0.71)	0.59 (0.53-0.65)	0.60 (0.52-0.67)
SAPS II	0.73 (0.69-0.77)	0.67 (0.61-0.72)	0.61 (0.55-0.67)	0.60 (0.53-0.68)
APACHE II	0.72 (0.68-0.76)	0.66 (0.61-0.71)	0.61 (0.55-0.67)	0.60 (0.52-0.67)
REMS	0.67 (0.62-0.71)	0.63 (0.57-0.68)	0.55 (0.49-0.61)	0.59 (0.52-0.66)

Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves along with 95% confidence intervals are displayed. ^aDenotes best performing score at each time interval. ^bScores where AUC at 0 to 12 hours is NOT significantly higher than AUC at 12 to 24 hours, 24 to 48 hours, and 48 to 72 hours. APACHE II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Score II; MEDS, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis; MEWS, Modified Early Warning Score; PIRO, Predisposition/Infection/Response/Organ Dysfunction Score; REMS, Rapid Emergency Medicine Score; SAPS II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II; SCS, Simple Clinical Score; SOFA, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; ViEWS, VitalPac Early Warning Score.

ISSN: 1364-8535