Procalcitonin decrease over 72 hours in US critical care units predicts fatal outcome in sepsis patients

Table 4 Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for ICU and in-hospital mortality at different PCT kinetics cut-offs

Cut-off	Sensitivity (95%CI)	Specificity (95%CI)	PPV (95%CI)	NPV (95%CI)
Part A: ICU mortality
	Derivation cohort
0% PCT decrease	0.24 (0.13-0.40)	0.89 (0.82-0.94)	0.48 (0.27-0.69)	0.74 (0.66-0.81)
40% PCT decrease	0.44 (0.30-0.60)	0.82 (0.73-0.88)	0.50 (0.34-0.66)	0.78 (0.69-0.85)
60% PCT decrease	0.60 (0.44-0.74)	0.67 (0.57-0.76)	0.43 (0.30-0.56)	0.80 (0.71-0.88)
80% PCT decrease	0.91 (0.79-0.98)	0.35 (0.26-0.45)	0.37 (0.28-0.46)	0.90 (0.77-0.97)
	Validation cohort
0% PCT decrease	0.50 (0.26-0.74)	0.81 (0.71-0.89)	0.36 (0.18-0.57)	0.88 (0.79-0.95)
40% PCT decrease	0.67 (0.41-0.87)	0.68 (0.57-0.78)	0.31 (0.17-0.48)	0.90 (0.80-0.96)
60% PCT decrease	0.78 (0.52-0.94)	0.61 (0.49-0.71)	0.30 (0.17-0.45)	0.93 (0.82-0.98)
80% PCT decrease	0.83 (0.59-0.96)	0.37 (0.27-0.48)	0.22 (0.13-0.34)	0.91 (0.76-0.98)
Part B: In-hospital mortality
	Derivation cohort
0% PCT decrease	0.22 (0.12-0.37)	0.89 (0.81-0.94)	0.48 (0.27-0.69)	0.71 (0.62-0.79)
40% PCT decrease	0.41 (0.27-0.56)	0.81 (0.72-0.88)	0.50 (0.34-0.66)	0.75 (0.66-0.82)
60% PCT decrease	0.59 (0.44-0.73)	0.68 (0.58-0.76)	0.46 (0.33-0.59)	0.78 (0.68-0.86)
80% PCT decrease	0.92 (0.80-0.98)	0.36 (0.27-0.46)	0.40 (0.31-0.50)	0.90 (0.77-0.97)
	Validation cohort
0% PCT decrease	0.43 (0.25-0.63)	0.83 (0.73-0.91)	0.52 (0.31-0.72)	0.78 (0.67-0.87)
40% PCT decrease	0.63 (0.44-0.80)	0.72 (0.60-0.82)	0.49 (0.32-0.65)	0.83 (0.71-0.91)
60% PCT decrease	0.70 (0.51-0.85)	0.64 (0.52-0.75)	0.45 (0.30-0.60)	0.84 (0.71-0.92)
80% PCT decrease	0.77 (0.58-0.90)	0.38 (0.26-0.50)	0.34 (0.23-0.46)	0.79 (0.62-0.91)

CI, confidence interval; NPV, negative predictive value; PCT, procalcitonin; PPV, positive predictive value

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